praying for rain...

Yes I know World Environment Day has come and gone and I have failed to acknowledge it. Indeed I am being very belligerent posting this today. The newspapers have gone back to being normal coloured and the TV channels are not compelling you to 'tune in for World Environment Day'. The day after yesterday is really just back to business after a day of green hoopla. This is precisely my point now and in previous 'environment day' posts.

Today I am reflective, the glorious red flame of the forest trees are in full bloom and the monsoons are around the corner in India. It always brings back memories of splashing around in the rain after school and then tucking into some hot chai. It has been 10 years since I graduated from school - in those years, rainfall patterns have perceptibly changed. Summers have gotten measurably hotter, rainfall less intense and duration of monsoons have also gotten shorter.

Last year Greenpeace hung a banner off the Mumbai-Thane bridge to bring to attention to the sporadic monsoons. It was covered in the last world environment day post. This year Greenpeace has released a video which in true style is creative and stresses again a call for action. Watch it below.

A whole year has passed and there have been no milestones or remarkable achievements, then again a year is not enough to undo decades of damage. But where is the start that we have been hankering for?

Bonn climate negotiations have started, which is the follow-up to Copenhagen. It is anybody's guess as to what will come out of them. There is no use worrying or feeling hopeless.

Right now, it is stiflingly hot. The sky is making lots of noises and there is a gloom of heavy rainclouds that will not burst open in welcome showers. Why? We do not know, but I suspect its because the number of trees in the city has dwindled. So like that guy in the Dean Martin song, I too am praying for rain; for very different reasons...

monsoons, climate change and GDP

Monsoons are a phenomenon associated primarily with the Indian sub-continent. It is not just an actual wind pattern but an evoker of emotion in the Indian people. One of the things that brings together all of India is this amazing natural blessing that happens like clockwork year after year. It nourishes crops and dissipates some of the scorching summer heat. Inspite of the havoc it causes with transport systems, drainage and floods, the collective memories are that of rushing out to greet the first coming of rain and breathing in the intoxicating scent of damp earth.

The South-West monsoon and the retreating North-East monsoon form a weather pattern unique to India. The Indian monsoon is another one among many other casualties due to climate change. Effect of climate change on monsoons not only implies change in weather patterns but also a significant impact on agricultural output. Being a predominantly agricultural country, monsoons are essential for a good crop each other. This year, it is especially needed to navigate out of the recession. In the previous years, as the shares of agriculture in GDP shrank, so did the direct impact of monsoons on the economy. However, this year, with large sectors in severe economical downturn, this monsoons plays a crucial role in agricultural production and rural income and demand.

In order to achieve RBI's GDP growth estimates of 6% in 2009-10, it is imperative for agriculture to grow atleast 3% this year which is why a good monsoon is crucial. Monsoons are especially important for kharif crops - sugarcane, rice, corn, soybean and cotton that are sown in June-September. A good monsoon also increases soil moisture for rabi crops sown in winter like wheat. Monsoon-dependant crops account for nearly half of India's agricultural production and the income of about two-thirds of the country's population that lives on agriculture, directly or indirectly.

In the current economic scenario, a bad monsoon can substantially alter fortunes. This can affect sentiment in equity markets, particularly in companies that sell products in rural areas, including consumer goods, automobiles and farm inputs. All industries are currently banking on the rural farm sector at the moment to give the over-all economy a boost. Governments as well are looking for a good monsoon as a poor monsoon will push up the food subsidy bill. This soared from 19,000 crore earlier to 50,000 crore last year.

So much is dependant on the Rain Gods this year so the forecast by the Indian Meteorological Department of 96% rainfall spreads cheer. A forecast alone does not predict a good crop as it does not give any information about speed, timing, amount - often crucial when predicting floods.

The monsoon like many other global weather patterns depend on several factors. Human activities are disrupting the balance on which such weather systems depend on. The price of failure of such systems not only affect economy but also change an essential component of a country's spirit.

rebirth of the primordial soup?

One of the most devastating effects of global warming is how it affects the oceans and seas of the world. In order to understand how climate change affects the oceans, it is essential to know how oceans affect global weather.

Oceans dominate the movement of water, supplying most of the water vapour in the atmosphere by evaporation. Of this, 91% is returned to the oceans as precipitation, the remainder is transported and precipitated over landmasses. Runoff and groundwater from land flow back to the oceans.

The oceans and the atmosphere are tightly linked, and together form the most dynamic component of the earth’s climate system. Oceans store heat. When the earth’s surface cools or is heated up by the sun, the temperature change is greater and faster over land than over the oceans.

Winds and currents are constantly moving the ocean’s waters. The Gulf Stream Drift, for example, is powered by cold, dense, salt-laden water sinking off the north polar coastal regions and moving south in the depths, pushing the surface warm water from the tropical and subtropical Atlantic (including some from the Gulf of Mexico) up north to bathe the shores of Western Europe, producing a climate that is surprisingly mild for that latitude.

Global warming and melting of the polar ice-caps freshens the surface water, reducing its density and preventing it from sinking. As a result, the Gulf Stream slows down, or may even reverse, bringing severe winters to northern Europe while the rest of the earth heats up.

All over the world ocean waters are warming as a result of global warming putting stress on marine ecosystems and sea life, already under siege from pollution, overfishing and habitat destruction. Warmer oceans also mean that ice caps are going to be melting faster, the rising sea-level will put underlying coastal areas at risk of being submerged. Sea levels are predicted to rise 7 to 23 inches by the end of the century, plus 4 to 8 inches if recent melting in Greenland and Antarctica continues. Many scientists consider these conservative estimates.

Apart from this there is going to be a direct influence on global weather patterns with increase in hurricanes and typhoons. We have already seen evidence of this. Additionally, winters in northern Europe and Scandinavia have grown wetter, while those in southern Europe and the Middle East have become dryer. European farmers have encountered an earlier and longer growing season. The habitats and life cycles of many marine and terrestrial species have changed. There have been changes to the monsoon in India and the Pacific Southwest as well.

Food for thought: The planet's weather not only supports its varied species of life, it also supports global economy. The biggest economic sectors directly affected by climate change are agriculture and the fishing industry. The warming up of our oceans is a bigger threat to human survival than anything else we currently face. A continued increase in ocean temperatures will see the top predator species of the food chain extinct with oceans reverting back to the primordial soup stage of early creation.